By Cynthia Alo
The National Publicity Secretary, Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, Prof. Tukur Mohammed-Baba, has declared that President Bola Tinubu has lost significant political standing in the North since 2023, warning that neither former Vice President Atiku Abubakar nor Nigeria Democratic Congress candidate, Peter Obi, offers the region any credible alternative ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Mohammed-Baba made the declaration Monday on PrimeTime Arise Television interview in which he described the entire Nigerian political class, without exception, as bereft of ideas, driven by personal ambition, and incapable of addressing the twin crises of insecurity and economic meltdown ravaging the country.
He said: “I have not seen a party that articulates a clear policy ambition or an ideological standard. The average northern voter is disillusioned and has been for a long time.
“We have tried all kinds of permutations—northern candidates, Muslim-Muslim tickets, and so on. It seems to the average northerner that all this politics is about personalities and personal interests. It is not about people.”
On President Tinubu, whose 2023 election victory was partly built on substantial northern support, he said, “The impact of his policies on the economy and especially on individual lives has been highly disappointing, if not disturbing.
“Furthermore, the insecurity thing, no matter what the government says, is getting worse. Over a year ago, we talked about the ‘Forest Guards.’ It is only recently, with the event in Oyo and in Borno States , that they are talking of deploying 1,000 forest guards in some of the states but researchers have shown that there are over 30,000 terrorists operating in our ungoverned spaces.”
He cited the case of a northern village where bandits ordered residents off their farmland and subsequently threatened to invade their homes, forcing the community abandoned by the state to resolve to stand their ground collectively rather than flee.
“We are gradually normalising self-help that unless you do something, the government will not be there to protect you. That undermines the essence of the role of the state,” he said.
Turning to Atiku, he described him as a “recurring decimal” who, despite multiple attempts at the presidency, had still not articulated what he would do differently.
“I don’t see anything from him that presents an alternative apart from saying this government has failed,” he said. “Where is the beef?”
On Peter Obi, Mohammed-Baba said whatever goodwill the former Anambra governor built in the North before 2023 had since been squandered by serial party defections that left northern voters questioning his purpose.
“He has moved to two or three parties. The question we ask is: what does he want?” he said.
He also took aim at Obi’s running mate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, saying his recent remarks invoking northern icons Ahmadu Bello and Aminu Kano while positioning himself as a “new Messiah” were deeply offensive to northern sensibilities.
“In the North, that is very irreverent. It would be highly delusional for him to go that far and say he presents an alternative.
“An alternative in terms of what? Has he articulated anything on the economy, security, or anything on infrastructure? When you keep talking about things in abstract terms that run counter-intuitive to what the people have held on to, you will run into trouble,” he said.
When pressed to identify any presidential aspirant who might command northern confidence, Mohammed-Baba declined to name a single name. “We are waiting to see,” he said flatly.
He also challenged the APC’s strategy of crushing opposition parties through defections and court actions, cautioning that complacency could prove costly.
“Nothing fails like success,” he warned. “Be very careful, because sometimes complacency can spring surprises.”
Mohammed-Baba equally dismissed the notion that the North constitutes a single deliverable voting bloc, insisting the region’s diversity made such calculations simplistic.
“No one region can determine on its own the outcome of a presidential election and the North has never been able to do so alone, outside of military rule,” he said.
According to him, with fuel prices exceeding N1,300 per litre in most parts of the country, out-of-school children running into millions, and bandits imposing levies on farmers across Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara states, Mohammed said the 2027 contest would ultimately be decided not by political alliances or region, but by whichever candidate first offers Nigerians a credible way out.
“Is there anybody offering an alternative now?” he asked. “I don’t see anything.”
