Nigeria recorded 79,323 deaths and 34,773 civilian abductions in terrorism-related violence between 2020 and 2025, according to a six-year investigation by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA), which said the findings expose the scale and changing dynamics of the country’s security crisis.
The findings are contained in a report titled: “Four Times Boko Haram? How the World Misreads Nigeria’s Violence,” released in Jos on Tuesday. The report was accompanied by a statement signed by ORFA’s Senior Research Analyst, Mr. Frans Vierhout.
According to the report, the violence averaged seven attacks every day and claimed an average of 36 lives daily over the six-year period.
It stated that 42,033 civilians were among those killed, while 37,290 deaths involved members of the security forces and terrorist groups.
ORFA said its researchers spent years cross-referencing attack patterns and data from multiple sources, arguing that the findings challenge long-held assumptions about the drivers of violence in Nigeria.
The report contended that while Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) are widely blamed for insecurity, the two groups accounted for only 12 per cent of civilian killings, with Boko Haram responsible for 8 per cent and ISWAP 4 per cent.
By contrast, the report claimed that armed groups it categorised as “Fulani Terror Groups” were responsible for 44 per cent of all civilian killings, amounting to 18,577 deaths, compared with 4,941 killings attributed to Boko Haram and ISWAP combined.
ORFA stressed that it distinguishes between the armed groups identified in the report and the broader Fulani ethnic population.
“ORFA is careful to distinguish between armed Fulani terror groups and the Fulani people as a whole, the vast majority of whom are not involved in violence,” the report stated.
Commenting on the findings, Vierhout said the data revealed a clear pattern.
“The data makes this very difficult to ignore. We look at how killing occurs, who they target, where they operate, the seasonal fluctuations of killings, and the evidence points strongly in one direction,” he said.
He added, “Violence linked to Fulani militias is the dominant force behind Nigeria’s death toll. The Western preoccupation with Boko Haram is, at best, misleading. Nigeria is incubating a terror network which the outside world has yet to acknowledge.”
On abductions, the report said 34,773 civilians were kidnapped during the review period, alleging that groups classified as “Fulani Terror Groups” accounted for 43 per cent of the abductions, while “Unidentified Terror Groups” were responsible for 49 per cent.
The report also highlighted what it described as a religious dimension to the violence, stating that 28,551 Christians and 13,224 Muslims were killed between 2020 and 2025.
According to ORFA, Christians in affected states were killed at 4.4 times the rate of Muslims when adjusted for state population.
The report further alleged that Christian and Muslim abductees experienced different treatment in captivity.
It said 15,932 Christians and 15,272 Muslims were abducted during the period. Citing survivor testimonies, ORFA claimed Christian hostages generally faced higher ransom demands, longer negotiations, harsher treatment and a greater risk of execution, even after ransom payments.
Steven Kefas, Senior Research Analyst at ORFA and author of Captivity by Creed: The Religious Sorting System Nobody Talks About, said the findings pointed to a consistent pattern.
“From the moment of capture, Muslim and Christian hostages enter different realities. It is not about individual captors. It is a system—consistent across multiple states, armed groups and multiple years of survivor testimony,” he said.
The investigation also found that 75 per cent of civilians were killed during attacks on farming communities involving abductions, rape and destruction of property.
ORFA said it recorded up to 60 data elements for each incident using five data sources, including field research, local partners, academic projects, media and NGO reports, and verified social media.
The organisation called for broader recognition of what it described as the religious dimensions of Nigeria’s violence, arguing that efforts to tackle the country’s insecurity would remain incomplete without a full understanding of the patterns identified in its investigation.
