By Folarin Kehinde
Twenty years after its last population and housing census, Nigeria finds itself in an unusual position: governing one of Africa’s largest populations without a current official count of how many people actually live within its borders.
As the country inches closer to the 2027 general elections, the long-awaited national census remains in limbo, leaving policymakers, investors, development partners, and citizens dependent on projections rather than verified demographic data.
The last census was conducted in 2006. Since then, Nigeria has witnessed dramatic changes in population growth, urbanisation, migration patterns, and economic activity. Yet, despite repeated promises by successive administrations, a fresh headcount has remained elusive.
At the centre of the exercise is the National Population Commission (NPC), the agency constitutionally mandated to conduct the census; however, a combination of funding challenges, security concerns, logistical hurdles, and political sensitivities has repeatedly pushed the exercise further down the road.
More Than Numbers
In most countries, a census is a routine statistical exercise. In Nigeria, it is much more than that.
Population figures influence critical aspects of governance, including national planning, infrastructure development, political representation, constituency delineation, and resource allocation. Consequently, census exercises have historically attracted intense scrutiny, with questions often arising over credibility, methodology, and regional interests.
The stakes are particularly high because population figures shape decisions that affect the distribution of public resources and development projects across the federation. As a result, what should ordinarily be a technical exercise frequently assumes political dimensions.
Planning in the Dark
The prolonged absence of updated demographic data has left Nigeria relying heavily on estimates.
While various international agencies and demographic experts project the country’s population at well over 200 million people, the exact figure remains unknown.
This uncertainty creates challenges for governments at all levels.
How many classrooms should be built? How many hospitals are needed? What is the scale of housing demand? Where should roads, water projects, and public utilities be prioritised?
Without accurate population data, answers to these questions are often based on assumptions rather than evidence.
The challenge is even more pronounced in rapidly growing urban centres such as Lagos, Kano, Abuja, Port Harcourt, and Onitsha, where population growth has significantly outpaced available infrastructure and public services.
Billions Spent, Census Still Pending
The irony is that substantial resources have already been committed to the exercise.
Under former President Muhammadu Buhari, the federal government approved approximately ₦800 billion for census preparations. Of that amount, about ₦224 billion was reportedly released to the NPC.
Former NPC Chairman Nasir Isa Kwarra disclosed that nearly ₦200 billion had already been spent on preparations, including the acquisition of more than 760,000 digital devices intended to support
The census was initially scheduled for 2023 but was postponed indefinitely. Speaking in 2024, Kwarra expressed concern over the continued delay.
“At the beginning of the year, we wanted to conduct a census in November, but we are waiting for that nod. If that is given, we will swing into action, and before the end of 2024, we will be able to conduct a very good census for Nigeria,” he said.
He also warned that prolonged inactivity could render some of the procured equipment obsolete.
“If you don’t use the equipment and the batteries go down, we risk losing many of these facilities,” he noted.
Tinubu’s Assurances
President Bola Tinubu has repeatedly reaffirmed the federal government’s commitment to conducting a credible census.
During the inauguration of the National Coordination Committee for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) and the launch of the National Geospatial Data Repository in Abuja, the president described population data as a critical component of national development.
“The population remains the greatest asset of the nation in the development process,” Tinubu stated.
“Collecting accurate and reliable information on the size, distribution, composition and characteristics of the population is an essential governance activity that is consistent with our Renewed Hope Agenda.”
The President assured the NPC that the federal government would support the exercise and provide the necessary resources for its successful implementation.
Those assurances were reinforced in April 2025 when Tinubu inaugurated a presidential committee to review preparations for the census. Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, who chairs the committee, pledged that its recommendations would be delivered within the stipulated timeframe.
Similarly, Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, reiterated the government’s commitment to a transparent and internationally acceptable census.
According to him, credible data remains the foundation of effective governance and development planning. He assured that government communication agencies, including the National Orientation Agency, Nigerian Television Authority, Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria, Voice of Nigeria, and the News Agency of Nigeria, were prepared to mobilise public participation once a census date were officially proclaimed.
A New Chairman, Same Promise
The commitment was further echoed by the new NPC chairman, Dr Aminu Yusuf, who assumed office in December 2025.
Yusuf maintained that the commission remains fully prepared to conduct a technologically driven and credible census the moment the Federal Government announces a date.
According to information published by the commission, preparations for a fully digital census have largely been completed. However, as NPC officials continue to emphasise, only the president has the constitutional authority to proclaim a census date.
The 2027 Question
Fresh optimism emerged following the proposed ₦12.78 billion allocation to the NPC in the 2026 budget. The provision has revived expectations that Nigeria may finally conduct a census after years of postponement.
Yet concerns persist.
With the 2027 general elections approaching, it should be of note that conducting a census too close to a major electoral cycle could create administrative pressures and fuel political suspicions.
Both exercises demand enormous financial resources, extensive logistics, security deployments, public mobilisation, and nationwide
coordination.
The overlap could stretch institutional capacity and complicate implementation; the challenge is no longer whether Nigeria needs a census but whether it can successfully conduct one before election activities dominate the national agenda.
The Cost of Delay
The consequences of continued postponement extend far beyond statistics. Without reliable demographic data, governments face greater difficulty addressing unemployment, poverty, migration trends, healthcare needs, education planning, and infrastructure deficits.
Investors also depend on accurate population information to assess market opportunities, consumer behaviour, and labour availability.
In the absence of updated figures, economic planning becomes increasingly uncertain.
Although Nigeria can legally conduct elections without a new census, the country risks making critical political and economic decisions with an incomplete understanding of its population realities.
For a nation aspiring to become one of the world’s leading economies, that uncertainty carries significant consequences.
As Nigeria marks two decades without a census, one question continues to loom large: How long can a country effectively plan for its future without knowing precisely how many people it is planning for?
The answer may ultimately determine not only when the next census is conducted but also how effectively Africa’s most populous nation can govern itself in the years ahead.
