The global personal computer (PC) market has recorded its first quarterly decline in more than two years as a worsening shortage of memory chips disrupted supply chains, pushing up prices and threatening the industry’s much-anticipated artificial intelligence (AI)-driven upgrade cycle. New figures from the International Data Corporation (IDC) show that worldwide PC shipments fell by 4.9 per cent year-on-year to 68.2 million units in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, down from 71.7 million units in the corresponding period of 2025, ending nine consecutive quarters of market expansion.
IDC attributed the contraction not to weak consumer demand but to an escalating shortage of memory chips, alongside constraints in storage components and geopolitical tensions that have limited manufacturers’ ability to meet market demand. The research firm warned that the supply crunch is expected to persist through 2027 and may not ease until early 2028, forcing vendors to increase prices while squeezing production volumes.
Research Director for Consumer Devices at IDC, Jitesh Ubrani, said the latest figures reveal a widening gap between shipment volumes and industry earnings, as vendors continue transferring rising production costs to consumers.
“The real story here is the disconnect between units and dollars: shipments are falling, but revenue is climbing because vendors are pushing through price increases faster than demand is dropping,” Ubrani said.
He added that the industry’s outlook remains uncertain as inventory buffers built during previous quarters have largely been exhausted.
“Given worsening macro conditions and a memory shortage that isn’t expected to ease until early 2028, we don’t expect another round of inventory pull-forward, which points to a sharp slowdown in growth rates in the second half of 2026. Vendors are bracing for further price hikes into 2027, and channels are already flagging concern about elevated inventory at these higher price points,” he said.
Analysts noted that inventory pull-forward, the practice of stockpiling components ahead of anticipated shortages or tariff changes, had sustained shipments in previous quarters. However, with suppliers unable to replenish inventories at the same pace, the second half of 2026 is expected to present a far more difficult operating environment for global PC manufacturers. The development also comes at a critical period when the industry is banking on AI-enabled computers equipped with dedicated neural processing units (NPUs) to drive a new wave of consumer upgrades.
According to IDC, prolonged component shortages could weaken the expected upgrade cycle as higher retail prices discourage consumers and businesses from replacing ageing computers. The research firm also observed that the crisis is accelerating consolidation within the global PC market, with larger manufacturers leveraging their purchasing power and diversified businesses to secure scarce components ahead of smaller competitors.
The latest vendor rankings reflect that trend. Lenovo retained its position as the world’s largest PC manufacturer, shipping 16.6 million units to account for 24.4 per cent of the global market despite a 2.1 per cent decline in shipments. HP Inc. followed with 13.0 million units but recorded one of the sharpest declines among the top five vendors, with shipments dropping 9.0 per cent and market share falling from 19.9 per cent to 19.1 per cent. Dell Technologies remained third with 9.3 million units shipped, representing a five per cent decline, while maintaining a 13.6 per cent market share.
Apple emerged as the biggest winner during the quarter, posting the strongest growth among the leading manufacturers. The technology giant shipped 6.7 million Mac computers, representing a 10.1 per cent increase from 6.1 million units recorded in Q2 2025. Its market share also climbed significantly from 8.5 per cent to 9.9 per cent, largely driven by strong demand for its newly launched MacBook Neo. ASUS also recorded marginal growth of 0.2 per cent, shipping 5.0 million units and increasing its market share to 7.4 per cent, while vendors outside the top five experienced the steepest decline, with shipments falling 10.5 per cent from 19.6 million to 17.5 million units.
Vice President for Consumer Devices at IDC, Jean Philippe Bouchard, said the worsening supply environment increasingly favours larger technology companies with stronger supplier relationships and greater purchasing power.
“As market conditions continue to worsen, the importance of supply chain management and capabilities is increasing. The largest vendors, with their buying power and long-standing supplier ties, are best positioned to take share from smaller rivals,” Bouchard said.
He added: “Apple’s share gain coincided with its latest product launch, the MacBook Neo, and while the company did raise prices in line with the broader market, it remains well positioned against rivals facing the same cost pressures.”
Meanwhile, IDC cautioned that the implications extend beyond major global markets to developing economies. While, for Nigeria and other African countries, where demand for affordable computers continues to rise due to digital education, e-government initiatives, remote work and a growing technology startup ecosystem. With memory shortages expected to persist until 2028, higher global component prices and constrained supply could significantly increase the cost of PCs in emerging markets, potentially slowing digital inclusion efforts and widening the digital divide across the continent at a time when governments are prioritising digital transformation.
