President Bola Tinubu’s administration is, three years on, quietly but steadily reshaping Nigeria’s trajectory through targeted reforms aimed at strengthening security, revitalising production and restoring national confidence, writes Linus Aleke.
Three years into the administration of President Bola Tinubu, public assessments of his stewardship continue to generate intense debate. Such scrutiny is both inevitable and healthy in a democracy as diverse and complex as Nigeria. However, beyond partisan rhetoric and the daily torrent of political criticism, a broader examination of developments across key sectors reveals a record of notable progress. From security and crude oil production to agriculture and education, the administration has embarked on reforms that are gradually altering the landscape of governance and national development.
When President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, he inherited a daunting security environment. The country was grappling with terrorism in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, separatist violence in parts of the South-East, widespread kidnapping and criminality across several regions, as well as large-scale crude oil theft in the Niger Delta.
Faced with these multifaceted threats, the administration moved to strengthen the nation’s security architecture, recognising that sustainable economic growth and national prosperity cannot thrive in an atmosphere of insecurity. Enhanced intelligence gathering, increased funding for military operations, improved inter-agency collaboration and the acquisition of modern security assets became central pillars of the government’s response.
The outcome of these efforts, according to military authorities, have been visible across various theatres of operation. Speaking on the achievements recorded by the Armed Forces of Nigeria, Director of Defence Media Operations, Major General Michael Onoja, stated: “The operational outcomes recorded across all theatres of operation during the period constitute an irrefutable and resounding testament to the strategic clarity, combat effectiveness, and institutional resolve of the Armed Forces of Nigeria. From the sustained neutralisation of Boko Haram/ISWAP formations in the North East and the interdiction of bandit networks across the North West, to the rescue of over a hundred kidnapped civilians across the North Central, the dismantling of illegal arms manufacturing networks, the seizure of sophisticated oil-theft convoys in the South South, and the systematic degradation of separatist criminal elements in the South East, the AFN has demonstrated a comprehensive and growing operational capability that decisively engages the full spectrum of threats confronting the country. Overall, 317 terrorists/criminals were neutralised, 314 suspects were arrested, 221 civilians were rescued, 18 terrorists surrendered, 93 arms were recovered, three illegal refining sites were destroyed while 21,910 litres of assorted petroleum products were recovered.”
Beyond these specific operational outcomes, figures released by the Defence Headquarters indicate that thousands of terrorists and criminal elements have been neutralised, arrested or compelled to surrender during sustained military offensives. Security agencies have also rescued thousands of kidnapped victims and dismantled numerous criminal networks across the country. Although serious security challenges remain, the armed forces have maintained relentless pressure on groups that once operated with alarming impunity and controlled extensive territories.
The impact of these efforts can also be seen in Nigeria’s position on global security indices. According to the Global Terrorism Index, Nigeria’s ranking improved considerably between 2020 and 2024. While the country moved from eighth position in 2024 to sixth in 2025, it remains in a significantly better position than during the period when it ranked among the three or four countries most affected by terrorism worldwide. This suggests that despite periodic setbacks, the overall trajectory has been more positive than is often portrayed.
Nowhere is the nexus between security and economic development more apparent than in the oil and gas sector. For years, crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism and sabotage deprived the country of billions of dollars in revenue while undermining investor confidence. Sophisticated criminal networks and local collaborators orchestrated the large-scale theft of crude oil, creating one of the most damaging economic leakages in Nigeria’s history.
Against this backdrop, the administration intensified efforts to protect critical oil infrastructure. Through coordinated action involving security agencies, private surveillance contractors and local stakeholders, illegal bunkering activities have been significantly curtailed in key production areas. The result has been a steady recovery in crude oil output.
Providing insight into this development, the General Officer Commanding 6 Division, Nigerian Army, and Land Component Commander of the Joint Task Force, South South, Operation Delta Safe, Major General Emmanuel Emekah, disclosed that the improved security situation had enabled crude oil production to rebound to approximately 2.2 million barrels per day.
Speaking during a Defence Correspondents’ visit to the Area of Responsibility of Operation Delta Safe, Major General Emekah reaffirmed the military’s commitment to supporting the Federal Government’s target of achieving daily crude oil production of three million barrels by 2027.
He noted that the security situation in the Niger Delta had improved substantially, allowing residents of riverine communities to resume fishing and other legitimate economic activities without fear.
“The Niger Delta remains the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, and the performance of the oil and gas sector is a critical indicator of our operational effectiveness,” he said.
According to him, since assuming command on 24 January 2025, Operation Delta Safe had not recorded any incident of violent pipeline vandalism within its area of responsibility.
Major General Emekah stated: “Before this period, crude oil production hovered between 1.4 million and 1.5 million barrels per day. However, following a presidential directive to boost output, production rose steadily to about 2.2 million barrels per day by December 2025. We are working assiduously to sustain and further improve on this figure.”
He further disclosed that from January, 2025 to date, no oil company operating within the area had reported any pipeline breach resulting from vandalism.
Available data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reinforce this narrative, showing that Nigeria’s oil output has improved compared with previous years, when production frequently fell below expectations because of theft and operational disruptions. Increased production has strengthened government revenues, enhanced foreign exchange earnings and reinforced Nigeria’s standing in the global energy market.
The improvement in security has also helped restore investor confidence. Major investment commitments worth billions of dollars have been announced for offshore and deep-water projects, underscoring growing faith in the government’s efforts to provide a stable, secure and investment-friendly operating environment.
Commenting on these developments, Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, observed that the significance of such investments extends well beyond the oil and gas sector.
According to him, these investments are not only vital for expanding oil and gas production but are equally important for strengthening the broader blue economy through port development, maritime services, local content participation and job creation. He added that growing investor interest reflects improved regulatory clarity and the government’s sustained efforts to create a secure, efficient and investment-friendly maritime environment.
Beyond the energy sector, the administration has sought to reposition agriculture as a critical driver of economic growth, food security and rural development. Given the sector’s strategic importance to national prosperity, agriculture has remained a key component of the government’s broader economic vision.
As the largest employer of labour in Nigeria, the sector plays a crucial role in livelihoods and economic stability. Through targeted interventions, support programmes and expanded access to financing, the government has sought to boost productivity and strengthen domestic food production. Attention has also been directed towards improving agricultural value chains, encouraging mechanisation and supporting smallholder farmers who remain central to the sector’s success.
Although rising food prices continue to impose considerable pressure on households, the structural reforms currently underway cannot be ignored. The administration’s emphasis on expanding cultivation, supporting farmers and reducing dependence on food imports reflects a long-term strategy aimed at achieving sustainable food security. International institutions, including the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organisation, have consistently highlighted the importance of such measures in addressing agricultural productivity challenges across developing economies.
The administration has also sought to make a lasting impact in the education sector. For decades, financial constraints have limited access to tertiary education, forcing many talented young Nigerians either to abandon their studies or endure significant hardship in pursuit of academic advancement.
The establishment of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) represents one of the administration’s most significant interventions in this regard. For the first time, large numbers of students can access structured financial support to pursue higher education and vocational training without the immediate burden of tuition costs. The scheme has already benefited hundreds of thousands of students and has the potential to become one of the most transformative educational reforms in Nigeria’s recent history.
Beyond student financing, the government has also demonstrated a commitment to strengthening technical and vocational education. This reflects an understanding that modern economies require practical skills, innovation and entrepreneurship alongside conventional academic qualifications. By expanding educational opportunities and investing in human capital development, the administration is helping to lay the foundation for a more competitive and productive workforce.
Critics of the administration often point to the economic hardships associated with major policy reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates. Such concerns are understandable and merit serious consideration. Millions of Nigerians continue to contend with inflationary pressures and a rising cost of living, realities that cannot be dismissed.
Nevertheless, it is equally important to acknowledge that difficult reforms are often necessary to address deep-rooted structural distortions. International financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have repeatedly argued that subsidy regimes and multiple exchange-rate systems place significant burdens on public finances while discouraging investment and economic efficiency. Ultimately, the success of these reforms will be measured not by their short-term discomforts but by their long-term outcomes.
History teaches that nation-building is seldom achieved through popular decisions alone. More often, it requires courage, strategic vision and the determination to confront entrenched challenges. Three years into his presidency, Tinubu has demonstrated a willingness to tackle problems that previous administrations either deferred or approached with caution.
While considerable work remains ahead, the administration’s record in security, energy, agriculture and education provides tangible evidence of progress. Military operations have weakened criminal networks and strengthened national security. Crude oil production has rebounded from years of decline. Agricultural reforms are aimed at enhancing food security and improving rural livelihoods, while educational initiatives are expanding opportunities for future generations.
No administration can transform a nation overnight. Yet meaningful and enduring progress is often built through deliberate policies, sustained commitment and a clear sense of purpose. As Nigeria continues its journey towards stability, prosperity and national renewal, the achievements recorded by Tinubu administration over the past three years suggest that the country may indeed be moving steadily towards a more secure, productive and hopeful future.
